Sunday, May 3, 2009

Sports - changing world order

I believe quite strongly that a combination of the IPL and the economic (financial) crisis will fundamentally change sport across the globe. I'm probably going to say a few things that are going to be considered a little controversial but it's something I've been intrigued by for quite a while now.

Broadly speaking up until a few years ago the financial power of world sport remained in two major power centres - the US and Europe (Specifically the UK).

Even now the big money in rugby, soccer, motorsport and golf still emanates from these parts... but I don't expect that to last.

Some predictions:

  • I expect in five years time that Bangladeshi cricket will have overtaken English cricket in the test and One Day International rankings
  • Argentina rugby will be stronger than the European nations within seven years
  • In less than a decade I don't believe that the English premiership will be regarded as the leading football league in the world
  • Clubs like Manchester United, Barcelona and Chelsea will be competing with clubs from places like South America, the US and Asia in a global league in the not too distant future as opposed to the UEFA tournaments.
  • Bit of a wild one but I believe that South Africa will have one competitive football team in this tournament in ten years
  • I believe that the premier rugby competition - which will usurp the Super 14 - will be played out of either South Africa or Japan inside the next seven years and will work along the same lines as the IPL cricket system with either a bid or draft offering to pick sides.
  • Motorsport will be dominated by Chinese and Indian manufacturers and representatives and the Middle East and mainstream Asia will host most of the glamour races
  • Support for international brands such as the Springboks, All Blacks, Proteas, Wallabies etc will decline over the next ten years with cross-border franchises attracting greater support.

Obviously there are a lot of people who don't want to hear about the changing global world order but at the end of the day it is a numbers game - China, India, the rest of Asia and Brazil to some extent are growing rapidly at all levels...

  1. Look at what China achieved at the last world Olympics
  2. Look at the support the IPL has attracted - it's HUGE money and prestige that far outweighs what the international cricket boards can afford to pay their players.
  3. F1 used to be the domain of the European manufacturers... suddenly the likes of Toyota are coming in and the Middle East is pouring money into development of tracks and teams - things are going to look very different in a few years time...

Does it sound like lunatic fringe stuff or do you think there is some merit to it all? Would love your input?

7 comments:

Marc said...

Americans now trying to get in on the T20 story....

http://www.supersport.com/cricket/article.aspx?headline=ICC%20urges%20U.S.%20officials%20to%20fight%20rebel%20league&id=298439

Marc said...

Oh and SA looking at this Southern Premier League - SPL -
http://cricketnext.in.com/news/ipl-success-spurs-s-africa-to-launch-spl/40529-27.html

Ian said...

I can see T20 cricket taking a broader reach, there is already talk of a T20 tournament in America too take place. Justin Langer and Jason Gillespie will take part in it I think.

India is an emerging economy are putting themselves on the map.
I can see a fair bit of validity in your predictions, but South Africa having a competitive football team...yeah that is a wild one.

Marc said...

Hahahahah I'm feeling all patriotic!

Viva Kaizer Chiefs!

guestblogger said...

Very interesting views. Not sure on the Bangladesh cricket prediction though, but we shall see!

Would you be able to email me when you get the chance by the way? There is something I would like to run by you.

Thanks a lot,

Thomas

Marc said...

Hahaha. Hi Thomas - welcome to the blog.

Have to be ambitious about Bangladesh!

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